A quick update on my football betting reports

I realise it has been quite some time since I posted anything about my football bets.

There’s a good reason for this. I have become somewhat disenchanted with them, following a series of losses that caused me to reassess what I was doing.

This season the format of the information provided by the Football Betting Data service has changed somewhat compared to last season and up until now I had been placing bets on the televised matches, based on their ‘recommendations,’ placing the largest bets (£5 stakes) on the shortest odds bets (i.e. the most likely outcomes) all the way down to bets of £1 or £2 stakes on the very long shots like first scorer and correct score bets.

However, I came to realise that this might not be the best tactic, especially after some results that went completely against the form book. I don’t have a large enough bankroll to place bets on all the matches on a given weekend and I have no way of knowing which results are more likely to go according to the recommendations and which might not.

I haven’t put any bets on since before the international break. Last season I tended to shy away from the very short odds bets, because it only took a couple of them to lose to wipe out most of my profits. However, from memory, last season I was placing bets of the same stake on all bets, regardless of the odds, not something I have been doing this season. Of course, by placing smaller bets on the outside odds bets this season, even if they do come in, they don’t provide a significant pay out.

Once I have figured out what my approach needs to be, I will get back to placing bets and reporting on them here. Thanks for your patience, normal service will be resumed shortly.

Can Betting Systems Help With Online Roulette?

This article is about using betting systems when playing roulette. Playing roulette is entertaining, especially if you are winning. However, like all casino games, it incorporates a house edge that means in the long run the casino always wins. On occasion, thanks to natural variance you may hit a winning streak and beat the house against the odds, winning a significant amount of money. However, in the long run it is impossible to overcome the house edge in roulette (or any other casino game for that matter) as has been proven time and time again. Most of the successful ones did it through observing biased roulette wheels.

Wheel bias

When it comes to online roulette, wheel bias no longer exists; the odds that determine the winning number and colour are programmed into computer algorithms and these are responsible for deciding the outcome of each spin of the wheel. The online roulette system consistently maintains the same odds in every spin. Internet casino roulette players often use various betting systems in order to provide some sort of structure and organisation to their game. Roulette players have been using systems as a way of controlling their betting since the game’s early days. If you are playing roulette for fun (and, let’s face it, that is the only reason you should be playing it – it’s not a viable way to make money), then using a betting system will allow you to get the most entertainment out of your bankroll. Remember though, that’s all it will do, you are not going to be able to earn a living from playing roulette professionally – remember the house edge.

Betting systems are easy to learn

What’s great about betting systems is that they are quite simple and therefore easy to learn. However no betting method is guaranteed to beat the house edge, in fact the only thing you can say with any certainty is that the house edge will always prevail over the course of time. Every inside bet in American casino roulette online has only a one in thirty eight chance of winning but every time you win it will only pay you at odds of thirty five times the bet (that’s the house edge in full effect). Betting systems don’t really improve your chances of winning, they are simply way of organising the way you bet to cover your losses.

The Martingale system

If you do any research on this topic you will almost certainly encounter the Martingale betting strategy and we have put together a free pdf for you to download that details that particular strategy. All other well known betting strategies are based on this system. The Martingale system is based on this simple premise: you only ever bet on red or black and if you lose, you must double your following bet. If the player wins for the first time, he will gain back all his previous losses and profit an amount equivalent to the initial bet. The two main problems with this system are:

  1. It is entirely possible that you will reach the limit of your bankroll before you win. Even if you start with very small stakes, doubling your bet each time means the bet increases exponentially.
  2. The other concern is that you reach the bet limit for the table you are playing on that will prevent you from placing further bets. You can end up losing a lot of money this way.

Another similar system that can be somewhat successful is as follows: you should bet the same amount on the same number, or black roulette or red roulette for thirty five times consecutively. It is still possible to lose all your money but you get a lot of game time out of your money.

Small wins, big losses

This video shows a system being used that advocates betting on the numbers 1 – 33 each time. The video only shows a few turns and on each turn, the player wins. However, what the video neglects to show is that a single loss would wipe out not only all of those wins but also a significant part of the player’s bankroll as well.

Update on my midweek bets

These were all recommended bets earlier in the week from the Live Sports Profit service.

West Ham v Crewe – Both Teams to Score – £3 staked at Stan James at 5/6

Carla Suarez Navarro to beat Ksenia Pervak – £5 staked at Ladbrokes at 4/6

Real Madrid v Barcelona – Xavi to be First Goalscorer @ 14/1 (15.00) Each Way with Bet365 – £1 e/w staked

From a total of £10 staked on 3 bets, 2 of them were losers, the only that was a winner was the tennis match, at the shortest odds of the 3.  Granted the first goalscorer bet was a long shot and fortunately I only staked £3 on the both teams to score (because I only had £6 total in my Stan James account).

Total staked: £10

Total returns: £8.33

Loss: £1.67

So, a small loss on this occasion that would have been offset by either of the other two bets coming in as winners (even if Xavi had scored at any time that would have paid 1/3 odds to return another £5 or so).

My Ladbrokes account is looking fairly healthy at the moment, having deposited £10 last week I have more than doubled it already. My Stan James account on the other hand, is down to only £3.

More bets to come tomorrow for this weekend’s Premier League matches.

Results from the weekend’s bets and a few for today

Results

Live Sports Profits bets

Tip: St George Dragons (-4 pts) to beat New Zealand Warriors – didn’t bet. Result: won

Swansea v West Ham – Under 2.5 Goals – £4 bet. Result: lost

Typically, the bet I avoided because I didn’t fully understand ended up being a winner and the bet that I was a bit sceptical about placing because Swansea are a goal machine at the moment ended up being a loser.

£4 loss

Football Betting Data bets

Swansea Most Corners 4/5 @ Ladbrokes – £5 staked Result: won

West Ham Most Booking Points 3/4 @ William Hill – £2.15 staked Result: won

Swansea to beat West Ham 23/20 @ Bodog – £3 staked at Betfair at 2.16 Result: won

Swansea to ‘Win To Nil’ 5/2 @ Ladbrokes – £2 staked Result: won

£13.92 profit

Both Teams to Score 5/6 @ Skybet – £5 staked Result: lost

Over 2.5 Goals 8/11 @ Skybet – used £3 free bet Result: lost

Newcastle (+2) Corner Handicap 11/8 @ Bet365 – £3 staked Result: won

Newcastle Most Corners 10/3 @ Bet365 – £2 staked Result: won

First Scorer: Demba Ba (NU) 11/1 EW @ Bet365 – £1 e/w Result: lost

First Scorer: Papiss Cisse (NU) 8/1 EW @ Bet365 – £1 e/w Result: lost

Using the £3 free bet for the Over 2.5 goals bet helped to minimise my losses here.

£1.80 profit

Double Chance: Stoke/ Draw 8/11 @ Betfred – £3 staked Result: won

Draw 5/2 @ Bet365 – £3 staked at 12/5 Result: won

Correct Score: 1-1 6/1 @ Betfred – £2 staked Result: lost

A couple of good results here, only the correct score bet upsetting things. I think I should have only staked £1 on that and not been quite so greedy.

£7.38 profit

Man City Most Booking Points 11/10 @ William Hill – £5 staked Result: lost

Under 2.5 Goals 9/10 @ Stan James – £3 staked Result: lost

Draw 12/5 @ Bet365 – £2.96 staked Result: won

Correct Score: 1-1 6/1 @ Ladbrokes – £1 staked Result: lost

£1.89 loss

Overall: £17.21 profit

A few bets I’ve put on today

These were all recommended bets today from the Live Sports Profit service that I’m subscribed to.

West Ham v Crewe – Both Teams to Score – £3 staked at Stan James at 5/6

Carla Suarez Navarro to beat Ksenia Pervak – £5 staked at Ladbrokes at 4/6

Real Madrid v Barcelona – Xavi to be First Goalscorer @ 14/1 (15.00) Each Way with Bet365 – £1 e/w staked

Bets for this weekend

Live Sports Profit bets

Just got my email from the Live Sports Profit service through with some bets for this weekend. I’m still waiting on my Football Betting Data one.

There are a couple of recommended bets:

Rugby League, NRL – St George Dragons -4 points to beat New Zealand Warriors

Event: Rugby League, Australia NRL – St George Dragons v New Zealand Warriors
Date: Sat 25th Aug 25th – 8.30am – Live on Premier Sports
Tip: St George Dragons (-4 pts) to beat New Zealand Warriors
Odds: 10/11 (1.91) @ Stan James or 8/11 (1.73) BetFred, Ladbrokes
Stake: 0.5 point

I’m steering clear of this one because last time I tried placing one of their recommended bets on Australian Rugby League, I ended up losing, even though their bet was apparently a winner. I think the problem is I don’t fully understand the bet.

However, something I do understand is this one:

Premier League – Swansea v West Ham – Live on Sky Sports 2

Event: Football, Premier League – Swansea v West Ham
Date:   Sat 25th Aug – 12.45pm – Live on Sky Sports 2
Tip: Swansea v West Ham – Under 2.5 Goals
Odds: 17/20 (1.85) @ Bet365, Bet Victor, Unibet, Panbet
Stake: 0.5 point

Although I’m surprised that the recommendation is to go under, given that Swansea scored 5 last weekend and they are at home for this game. Nonetheless, I’m sticking with their recommendation and have placed a £4 at Bet365 at odds of 4/5 – I’ve stuck with a small stake because I’m not convinced about the bet and also I’m operating on a smallish budget at the moment.

Football Betting Data bets

Recommended Bets:
New look Swansea look set to dominate new boys West Ham…

Tap-in: Best Odds
Swansea Most Corners 4/5 @ Ladbrokes – £5 staked
Good Chance:
West Ham Most Booking Points 3/4 @ William Hill – £2.15 staked
Swansea to beat West Ham 23/20 @ Bodog – I don’t have an account with Bodog so £3 bet at Betfair at 2.16 odds
Long Shot:
Swansea to ‘Win To Nil’ 5/2 @ Ladbrokes – £2 staked

 

Recommended Bets:
The attacking talent on both sides points towards Goals in this one…

Tap-in: Best Odds
Both Teams to Score 5/6 @ Skybet – £5 staked
Good Chance:
Over 2.5 Goals 8/11 @ Skybet – used £3 free bet
Newcastle (+2) Corner Handicap 11/8 @ Bet365 – £3 staked
Long Shot:
Newcastle Most Corners 10/3 @ Bet365 – £2 staked
First Scorer: Demba Ba (NU) 11/1 EW @ Bet365 – £1 e/w
First Scorer: Papiss Cisse (NU) 8/1 EW @ Bet365 – £1 e/w

Recommended Bets:
Tough one to call at Stoke – with neither team offering much in their opening match…

Tap-in: Best Odds
No standout opportunities  
Good Chance:  
Double Chance: Stoke/ Draw 8/11 @ Betfred – £3 staked
Draw 5/2 @ Bet365 – £3 staked at 12/5
Long Shot:  
Correct Score: 1-1 6/1 @ Betfred – £2 staked

Recommended Bets:
Expect a tight affair with Liverpool desperate to get some points on the board…

Tap-in: Best Odds
Man City Most Booking Points 11/10 @ William Hill – £5 staked
Good Chance:
Under 2.5 Goals 9/10 @ Stan James – £3 staked
Draw 12/5 @ Bet365 – £2.96 staked (don’t ask!)
Long Shot:
Correct Score: 1-1 6/1 @ Ladbrokes – £1 staked

That’s a total of £50.21 staked, plus a £3 free bet from Sky, across all of my bets (amazing how quickly all those small bets add up!). I’ll update after the weekend to see whether I am in profit or loss overall.

Football Betting

The Premier League season starts again tomorrow and I have to admit that I am excited about it. There have been some interesting transfers over the summer and the transfer window isn’t closed yet. As a Spurs fan I’m looking forward to us getting a few more signings confirmed before the window shuts.

I am pretty sure that my football betting data subscription has renewed – I’m still getting emails through from them and I never cancelled the direct debit. I’m also live getting emails through from the Live sports profit service. I really didn’t make good use of that over the summer, ending up losing a fair bit thanks to Germany’s shock defeat in the Euros by Italy.

I haven’t placed any bets for this weekend’s action, given that it’s the first few games of the season and things might be a bit unpredictable at this stage, with new transfers, new managers, etc unsettling things. I think I will let things calm down about before diving back in. Once I do, I will start putting regular postings up here with my bets and then the results when they come in. If nothing else it will help me keep a track of whether I am making any money from it or not.

Live Sports Profit

I’m currently evaluating the Live Sports Profit tipping service on offer from Oxfordshire Press. This is the same company who provide the Football Betting data tipping service that I used to bet on the English Premier League last season.

The sports

In the same way as with their other services, they provide betting tips based on statistical data. This particular service covers a wide range of sports over the summer, including but not limited to the Euro 2012 football tournament, Wimbledon, The British Open Golf and the Olympics.

I openly admit, I have no interest whatsoever in golf or the Olympics and only a passing interest in tennis, so they are not the kind of sports I would bet on without some form of assistance but if I can find a way to profit from them then I’m all over it.

The cost

The service isn’t cheap at £57. When I joined the Football Betting data service for the last Premier league season (incidentally, as a Spurs fan I’m not sure how I feel about Harry Redknapp leaving yet) it was at a special offer of £40 (half the usual £80) with a free one month evaluation period, as we were part way into the season by then. Having said that, that service was limited to a single competition and this one covers a number of different sports and events over the course of the coming months.

The service

It’s a very comprehensive service as their offerings usually are. All of their tips are based on statistical analysis of the game/match/sport rather than instinct, gut feel or under the counter information. There’s nothing dubious about the information they are providing and you can’t get in trouble for placing these bets. Of course, there are no guarantees with gambling, so not every bet is a sure fire winner.

As well as providing the recommended bets they also have a staking plan – telling you how many points should be placed on a given bet. What does that mean? Well, I have decided that my normal stake amount for a bet will be £10, making that 1 point. So where the recommended stake for a bet would be 0.5 point, I would bet £5 and where it’s 0.1 point I would bet £1 (for example). Generally the longer the odds on a bet, the less likely the outcome but the bigger return and the smaller the recommended stake amount.

They also give you the bookies that are offering the best odds on a given bet, so that you make sure you get the best value for your money. The only downside to that is that potentially you need to open up accounts (if you don’t already have them) with loads of different online bookmakers. Of course if you don’t already have accounts then you can take advantage of the account opening offers that most of them have to get yourself some free bets.

The bookies

If you don’t feel like opening accounts with all the bookies, or if (as has happened to me in the past) you wallet won’t stretch to opening that many accounts at once to maximise your free bet offer potential (it’s always worth opening an account with a reasonable size deposit to get a reasonable size free bet) then I would recommend at the minimum going for Bet365 and Betfair. Bet 365 often offer the best odds (this was certainly the case with the Football Betting data service – the majority of the best prices were being offered by them) and Betfair often offer the same or better odds as the bookies being recommended for a given bet.

My bets so far

Missed bets

So far I have missed out on a couple of bets recommended by the service, or the odds have shortened so I have decided to give them a miss:

  • Rafal Nadal to win Wimbledon – 0.5 point e/w at 4/1 with Ladbrokes (this is currently 2/1 with Ladbrokes since he won the French Open and between 13/5 & 11/4 on Betfair) – no bet placed
  • Poland vs Greece Both teams to score – NO 0.5 point – I missed this bet (the game had already started) but it was a losing bet anyway
  • Greece vs Czech Republic over 2.5 Goals 0.5 point – I also missed this bet (the game had started and the Czech Republic were 2 goals up!) – winning bet

Bets placed

  • Denmark +1 Asian Handicap to beat the Netherlands 0.5 point with Bet365 – I actually bet something like £4.53 on this and got almost evens on my money.
  • England vs France result 1 – 1 – this was a tip from a different service that they are offering that I haven’t signed up to yet. A £10 service that is just for the Euro 2012 competition. The free tip was included in an email that I was sent. I placed a bet of £5 at 5/1 with Bet365 and made £25 profit.
  • Portugal vs Germany over 2.5 goals 0.5 point. The recommended bet was with Ladbrokes but I don’t have an account with them currently and I found better odds at Betfair. £5 stake made £6.60 profit.
  • Mesut Özil worth a punt for ‘Man of the Match’ – 8/1 with Boylesports – I used a £10 free bet I had with these guys, a worth a punt bet is always an outside chance and I wouldn’t have put such a large stake on it if I hadn’t had the free bet available. LOST
  • Top Scorer and Outright Winner doubles – Benzema/Germany (recommended at 80/1 with Paddy Power, I got on at 66/1 for a £1 stake); Benzema/France (recommended at 40/1 with Stan James, Blue Sq, BetFred, Totesport, I got on at 45/1 for a £2 stake with Betfair);  Benzema/Spain (recommended at 66/1 with Bet 365, I got on at 66/1 for a £1 stake); Benzema/Holland (recommended at 80/1 with Sportingbet or Ladbrokes, I haven’t bothered based on Holland’s performance as they aren’t likely to get out of their group). It’s worth noting that those recommendations and odds were from before the tournament started and I placed the bets are some teams had played their second games so odds and circumstances had changed. Also the minimum stake with Betfair is £2 not £1.

Conclusions so far

One frustration I have with the service at the moment is that I haven’t received any of the emails that are sent out with the tips in. I’ve checked my spam folder and they haven’t ended up in there either. This is a problem I encountered with the Football Betting data service on the odd occasion as well. As a consequence of that I have missed out on placing a couple of bets, although one of those would have lost.

The biggest profit I have made so far is from a bet using a tip from a different service from this publisher but it’s early days yet and it only takes one of the Top Scorer and Outright winner doubles to be a success and the service has paid for itself. Of course this is a long term betting strategy and I don’t expect it to pay for itself overnight.

Know your limits

As with all gambling, never gamble more than you can afford to lose. Set yourself limits and don’t go chasing losses. Using a tipping service like this is a good way to improve your betting profits if you use it responsibly. If you want to know more about the UK gambling industry or think you might need help with a gambling problem visit: Gamble Aware

Online casino games

If you get it in a real casino you can bet your bottom dollar than you get it in online casinos. Online slots, Blackjack, Roulette, Keno, Video Poker, Caribbean Poker, etc, etc. There are loads of sites offering these games, so if you love to gamble then you’re spoilt for choice.

However, since the idea of this site is to find the genuine ways of making money (mainly online) then I feel obliged to point out that, for the most part, you’re not going to do that gambling in a casino. Of course, there’s nothing wrong with gambling for fun and improving your odds. Check out Wizard of odds for a comprehensive site on how to do that.

House Edge

With all of these games the house has an advantage, it varies from game to game, site to site and even variation of game to variation of game (eg European Roulette has a lower house advantage than American Roulette). So I wouldn’t recommend any of these types of games as a serious way to make money in the long run. Sure you might get lucky and hit the jackpot on the slots, or bet it all on 7 in Roulette and have it come in, but the longer you play the greater your chances of going broke.

Your best bet (no pun intended) with this type of gambling is to do it for a bit of fun. Gamble with money you can afford
to lose and look for the sites that offer the best bonuses, or have the lowest house edge.

Euro Casino

Systems?

Having said that, there are a couple of systems you can use to improve your odds when playing various casino games. These will
work online and in real life.

The Martingale system can be used to improve your odds in an even bet situation. It is often used in roulette systems. When combined with a European
Roulette wheel and the ‘en prison’ rule you can dramatically reduce the house’s advantage. Download this free guide to the Martingale system and make up your own mind.

Free your free bonus

One situation where the Martingale system can be particularly useful is if you have been given a bonus by a casino. You normally have to gamble a certain amount in order to release the bonus. By using the Martingale system and your bonus you can turn your bonus into real cash. It is a slow process. Each time you win leave the roulette table and put the real money you have won into a poker cash table. Sit out without playing any hands. Keep going back to the roulette table and betting with your bonus money. By doing this you protect your winnings from being used (and lost) at the roulette table, allowing you to gamble only the bonus money.

Card Counting

A combination of card counting and Strategy tables can help dramatically when playing Blackjack. Obviously if you are card counting in a real casino then you need to be careful not to get caught, because the casinos aren’t a big fan of this kind of thing and will most likely kick you out. Luckily, your
chances of getting a beating at the hands of mobsters a la Martin Scorcese’s Casino are fairly unlikely. Whether card counting is of any real benefit in online casinos is dubious as they can easily shuffle the decks/decks after each hand.

Blackjack is possibly one Casino game where you can earn a living and there are professional Blackjack players in existence.

Free up your betting site bonuses

Boxing clever

We were a bit late with this one (I didn’t actually manage to get the bet on but the principle is the same) and it wouldn’t have made a large amount of money but it would have been a useful way
to earn some bonus bets being offered. Betfair were offering a free £5
matched bet on any £5 bet on the Hatton vs Mayweather fight. The best odds (either to back or to lay) were being offered
on Hatton – something like 2.4 (7/5). By backing Hatton to lose (placing a lay bet), this would complete part 1 of
the Betfair challenge (to place a back bet, bet in play and a lay bet) the first 2 of which were done during the
Rubgy World Cup and earn a £10 credit in addition to the free £5 bet.

Hatton losing would have earned £12 plus the free bet and the extra £10. Even if Hatton had won (which is what
we really wanted) the loss on that bet would have been £7 but there was still the free bet and the £10 credit.
Again a no lose situation (had we got round to placing the bet). Ok not a massive profit but it’s more about demonstrating
the principal.

This post was first published on the http://www.cashninja.co.uk site in 2008.

Internet Poker

Internet poker is big business, despite numerous US attempts to ban it. US friendly poker rooms are still available but don’t attract anything like the numbers of players that they were prior to Black Friday.

There are plenty of people who make a living playing online poker (sharks/professionals) and there are many times more people who lose money (fish) to those making their living.

Here at Gambling Ninja we play poker online with limited success at a number of different poker rooms. However one thing we are good at is finding the sites with good sign up bonuses and making the most of any money that they offer you to play.

Here are some tips and links that will hopefully help you improve your online game in addition to those general tips that apply to poker and the ones specific to bricks and mortar poker. Good luck.

Online poker tips

  • Be wary of the chat facility in poker rooms. Some players use it to put you off you’re game by criticising the way you played and hand, or calling you lucky, or other, less complimentary remarks. Normally this is either designed to put you off and make you change the way you play or
    simply because they are angry because you won a hand they thought they should. If it has a detrimental effect on your play then switch the chat off. On the other hand, you can use it to put other players off their game and confuse them about your own play.
  • Try playing at different times of day – Friday and Saturday nights when there are people online who’ve come back from
    the pub, can be rewarding but during the day the players are often of a much higher standard. Try it out, you’ll see what
    we mean
  • Play for free whilst you are learning the game and get lessons from the pros. Unfortunately the nature of poker is such that when there’s no money involved a lot of people don’t play properly. However
    it can still help to get a feel for the game before you stake your pension on it.
  • Get an odds calculator – a bit of software that looks at your cards and gives your probability of winning the hand.
    Especially useful when you’re still getting the hang of Pot Odds, Expected Value and so on. These are perfectly legit and you can be pretty sure that at least some of your opponents are using them so why not?

holdem indicator logo
tournament indicator logo

  • Get information on your opponents. Online poker rooms allow you to make notes on other players. Use them. On top of that,
    you can get hand histories emailed to you after a hand has finished. Useful info to analyse your play and that of your
    opponents.
  • If you want to automate keeping track of your online play download Poker Tracker
    You can import hand histories and analyse your play in minute detail. It’s not free (although you can download 1000 hands
    for free to try it out). We’ve only just started playing with this but it looks very useful.
  • If you are playing internet poker seriously then you should get a rake back account. RakeTheRake, the rakeback professionals add value to your poker playing by securing up to 60% rakeback at over 20 top poker rooms PLUS you can play for over $200k a month in exclusive promotions, winning cash or all expenses paid packages to worldwide live events. Earning rakeback is simple, it’s free and it can add up to tens of thousands of $$$ a year!!
    Visit our rakeback site http://rakeback.gamblingninja.net
  • Eat healthily and exercise regularly. It might sound crazy but if you are going to be playing online poker for 6 hours
    a day, playing 4 tables at a time then you need to be able to maintain your concentration. A healthy body leads to a healthy
    mind. Besides that, if you are sitting in front of a computer for 6 hours a day then you’re going to need to get some
    exercise.
  • For more tips on Poker Strategy PokerTips.org is a great site for strategy articles, poker rules, and online poker information.